Topics covered:
An introduction to probability and statistics. Discrete and continuous
random variables, mean and variance, hypothesis testing and confidence
limits, Bayesian inference, nonparametric methods, Studentīs t,
contingency tables, multifactor analysis of variance, fixed effects,
random effects, mixed models, multiple regression, maximum likelihood, and
logistic regression.
Graphing calculator with Z, t, chi-square and F distribution functions
(such as the TI-83 series) required. Calculus and the SAS software package
will both be used in an essential way.
Prerequisite:
Math 233 or consent of the instructor.
Course Hours and Room:
MWF 3:00-4:00pm -- Cupples II Rm 200
Office Hours:
Official Office Hours: MF 4:00-5:00pm
-- Rm 107 Cupples I --- 935-6703
(However, you are very welcome to come to my office anytime that I am
there and I am not talking with someone else.
Late afternoons and early evenings are often good, but you can call
or email in advance.)
Links:
Homework Assignments
(Recommended By-Hand HW and
Required
Computer HW)
Handouts
(including notes for using a TI-83 for Statistics and a Guide to
using SAS)
Sample
SAS programs and output
Stanley Sawyer's home page
Mathematics
Department Home Page
Washington
University Home Page
Textbook:
Statistics and Data Analysis from Elementary to Intermediate
A. J. Tamhane and D. D. Dunlop, Prentice-Hall, 2000,
ISBN 978-0137-44426-7
Instructor:
Prof. Stanley Sawyer -- Cupples I, Room 107
Phone: (314) 935-6703
Email:
sawyer@math.wustl.edu
Statistical Calculators:
The Texas Instrument calculators TI-83, TI-84, and TI-89 have a wide
variety of important probability functions and statistical procedures
built in. These can be used to evaluate the complex algebraic formulas
that are involved in most of the important test statistics in the course.
They also can be used to replace the probability tables that are otherwise
necessary to carry out many statistical procedures. (See Appendix A
in the back of the book.) For these reasons, these calculators will be the
official calculators for this course. You should practice using one of
these calculators to do homework problems, and you will be expected to
bring one of these calculators to course examinations. Since these
probability tables will not be provided during the examinations, you will
not be able to complete a great many exam problems without a calculator of
this type.
Recommended (By-Hand) Homework:
There will usually be
six recommended homework problems
from the textbook for each day of class. Of these, usually two (the
odd-numbered questions) will have answers in the back of the book. I will
try to work out two of the even-numbered problems in class if there is
time. In that case, there would only be four problems recommended for that
day.
Most of the exam and final questions will be chosen from the
recommended problems with slight modifications. The rest of the exam
questions will be similar to these. You should do the recommended homework
problems and hand them in on the following Monday. They will be graded and
returned but they will NOT count towards the course grade.
Required Computer Homework:
There are assignments consisting of
three required
Computer Homework problems
that will be due on Mondays during the class. These assignments are to be
done using the statistical package SAS. You may also be required to do
some assignments in addition using another computer package such as STATA,
SPSS, or Minitab. The details of the use of these other packages will be
announced in class on a week-to-week basis.
At least initially, I drop by the ArtSci computer lab from 4-6 on
each Sunday before a computer HW is due to see if I can be of any
assistance. In addition, some
sample SAS programs and output
will be posted on the Math3200 Web site. The computer homeworks will
count as 20% of the course grade.
Format of Required Computer Homework:
Exams, Final, and Grades:
Collaboration:
In principle, any SAS computer homework problem involves three parts:
Your answer to the question, the SAS program, and the SAS program output.
Organizing your answers can be more difficult than for most mathematics
homework or exam problems. (Who knows: Maybe some day Math3200 can be used
to satisfy the WashU writing requirement?) In particular, you SHOULD
ORGANIZE your SAS computer homework into three parts:
(I) Your answer to all computer homework problems in your own words.
For example, ``The answer to Problem 1 is 17.125. Yes, it is fairly
close to the value that I might have guessed in advance, which was 17.''
This part should be in your own handwriting (or a general-purpose word
processor or text editor).
(II) All of your SAS programs together in sequence. If you write a
single SAS program to do all three problems (which may be easier to do
than writing three separate SAS programs), then include that one SAS
program.
(III) All of your SAS output.
If you organize your homework in this manner, all that I (or a grader)
will have to do in most cases is look at Part (I) of your homework to
see if the answers are correct and your discussion looks reasonable.
Generally speaking, the grader will only look at Parts (II) and (III)
for partial credit, unless of course you make a forward reference from
Part (I) to a specific page in Part (III) for a complicated table
or a plot or other graphic.
INCLUDE YOUR OWN NAME in a <title>
statement in
your SAS programs, so that your name will appear on the top of each page
of your SAS output.
NOTE: If necessary, WRITE PAGE NUMBERS on your SAS output or
SAS programs and output so that you can say things like, ``The answer to
Problem 1 part (a) is 17. The histogram for part (b) is on
page 11 of my SAS output.'' If you use one SAS program to do all the
homework problems, you can use the page numbers that SAS provides.
However, if you use several SAS programs, the SAS-supplied page numbers on
your SAS output might be something like pages 42-45 followed by pages 1-7
followed by pages 23-24. In that case, write your own page numbers on the
SAS output.
NOTE: DO NOT INCLUDE `proc print' output for SAS datasets with more
than about N=50 or N=100 lines! A `Proc print' statement for a SAS dataset
with N=10,000 observations will take up approximately 133 pages of output
that no one will ever look at except for the first few lines. In most SAS
programs (there are exceptions), `proc print' statements are there ONLY TO
CHECK that a SAS data step has done what you want it to do and that the
constructed SAS dataset is what you want it to be. After you have decided
that the program is working OK so far, these program-checking `proc print'
statements can be safely deleted. Of course, DON'T DELETE `proc print'
statements that are needed for your answers in Part (I).
There will be three in-Semester evening examinations on Tuesdays
February 5, March 4, and April 8 probably at
6:30-8:30 PM. The final will be on Friday May 2 from 10:30 AM to
12:30 PM. Approximately half of the Final will cover the material since
the third exam. The other half will cover the same material covered in the
first three exams.
Each exam will have 20 problems, of which around 15 will be from the
recommended homework (with slight changes) and the other 5 will be similar
in nature. Thus you should have no trouble doing well on the exams if you
have been doing the recommended homework regularly. You may bring one 4x6
inch notecard with notes to each examination. You should definitely
remember to bring one of the TI-83-series statistical calculators
mentioned above.
Examination room and seat assignments will be posted on the
Mathematics Department Web site at
http://www.math.wustl.edu/seatlookup
on the day of the examination.
Each of the four exams will count 20% towards the final grade. The
required Computer Homework will count the remaining 20%. In addition,
to help late bloomers, a separate final score will be counted for everyone
with the first three exams counted 16% each, the final counted 32%, and
the computer HW still the remaining 20%. The final score that counts will
be the maximum of these two scores. The final grade will be based on a
ranking by the final score. If you elect ``Credit/No Credit'', Cr means D
or better.
Collaboration on homework is allowed and can be helpful (and fun).
However, you must do all written work yourself, and write and run all
computer programs yourself.
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Last modified April 5, 2008