Math 3200 - Elementary to Intermediate Statistics - Spring 2008


An introduction to probability and statistics at an intermediate level.

Topics covered:
        An introduction to probability and statistics. Discrete and continuous random variables, mean and variance, hypothesis testing and confidence limits, Bayesian inference, nonparametric methods, Studentīs t, contingency tables, multifactor analysis of variance, fixed effects, random effects, mixed models, multiple regression, maximum likelihood, and logistic regression.
        Graphing calculator with Z, t, chi-square and F distribution functions (such as the TI-83 series) required. Calculus and the SAS software package will both be used in an essential way.

Prerequisite:
        Math 233 or consent of the instructor.

Course Hours and Room:
        MWF 3:00-4:00pm -- Cupples II  Rm 200

Office Hours:
        Official Office Hours: MF 4:00-5:00pm -- Rm 107 Cupples I --- 935-6703
        (However, you are very welcome to come to my office anytime that I am there and I am not talking with someone else.
        Late afternoons and early evenings are often good, but you can call or email in advance.)

Links:
       
Homework Assignments (Recommended By-Hand HW and Required Computer HW)
        Handouts   (including notes for using a TI-83 for Statistics and a Guide to using SAS)
        Sample SAS programs and output
        Stanley Sawyer's home page
        Mathematics Department Home Page
        Washington University Home Page

Textbook:
        Statistics and Data Analysis from Elementary to Intermediate
        A. J. Tamhane and D. D. Dunlop, Prentice-Hall, 2000,  ISBN 978-0137-44426-7

Instructor:
        Prof. Stanley Sawyer -- Cupples I, Room 107
        Phone: (314) 935-6703
        Email: sawyer@math.wustl.edu

Statistical Calculators:
        The Texas Instrument calculators TI-83, TI-84, and TI-89 have a wide variety of important probability functions and statistical procedures built in. These can be used to evaluate the complex algebraic formulas that are involved in most of the important test statistics in the course. They also can be used to replace the probability tables that are otherwise necessary to carry out many statistical procedures. (See Appendix A in the back of the book.) For these reasons, these calculators will be the official calculators for this course. You should practice using one of these calculators to do homework problems, and you will be expected to bring one of these calculators to course examinations. Since these probability tables will not be provided during the examinations, you will not be able to complete a great many exam problems without a calculator of this type.

Recommended (By-Hand) Homework:
        There will usually be six recommended homework problems from the textbook for each day of class. Of these, usually two (the odd-numbered questions) will have answers in the back of the book. I will try to work out two of the even-numbered problems in class if there is time. In that case, there would only be four problems recommended for that day.
        Most of the exam and final questions will be chosen from the recommended problems with slight modifications. The rest of the exam questions will be similar to these. You should do the recommended homework problems and hand them in on the following Monday. They will be graded and returned but they will NOT count towards the course grade.

Required Computer Homework:
        There are assignments consisting of three required Computer Homework problems that will be due on Mondays during the class. These assignments are to be done using the statistical package SAS. You may also be required to do some assignments in addition using another computer package such as STATA, SPSS, or Minitab. The details of the use of these other packages will be announced in class on a week-to-week basis.
        At least initially, I drop by the ArtSci computer lab from 4-6 on each Sunday before a computer HW is due to see if I can be of any assistance. In addition, some sample SAS programs and output will be posted on the Math3200 Web site. The computer homeworks will count as 20% of the course grade.

Format of Required Computer Homework:
        In principle, any SAS computer homework problem involves three parts: Your answer to the question, the SAS program, and the SAS program output. Organizing your answers can be more difficult than for most mathematics homework or exam problems. (Who knows: Maybe some day Math3200 can be used to satisfy the WashU writing requirement?) In particular, you SHOULD ORGANIZE your SAS computer homework into three parts:
        (I) Your answer to all computer homework problems in your own words. For example, ``The answer to Problem 1 is 17.125. Yes, it is fairly close to the value that I might have guessed in advance, which was 17.'' This part should be in your own handwriting (or a general-purpose word processor or text editor).
        (II) All of your SAS programs together in sequence. If you write a single SAS program to do all three problems (which may be easier to do than writing three separate SAS programs), then include that one SAS program.
        (III) All of your SAS output.
        If you organize your homework in this manner, all that I (or a grader) will have to do in most cases is look at Part (I) of your homework to see if the answers are correct and your discussion looks reasonable. Generally speaking, the grader will only look at Parts (II) and (III) for partial credit, unless of course you make a forward reference from Part (I) to a specific page in Part (III) for a complicated table or a plot or other graphic.
        INCLUDE YOUR OWN NAME in a <title> statement in your SAS programs, so that your name will appear on the top of each page of your SAS output.
        NOTE:  If necessary, WRITE PAGE NUMBERS on your SAS output or SAS programs and output so that you can say things like, ``The answer to Problem 1 part (a) is 17. The histogram for part (b) is on page 11 of my SAS output.'' If you use one SAS program to do all the homework problems, you can use the page numbers that SAS provides. However, if you use several SAS programs, the SAS-supplied page numbers on your SAS output might be something like pages 42-45 followed by pages 1-7 followed by pages 23-24. In that case, write your own page numbers on the SAS output.
        NOTE: DO NOT INCLUDE `proc print' output for SAS datasets with more than about N=50 or N=100 lines! A `Proc print' statement for a SAS dataset with N=10,000 observations will take up approximately 133 pages of output that no one will ever look at except for the first few lines. In most SAS programs (there are exceptions), `proc print' statements are there ONLY TO CHECK that a SAS data step has done what you want it to do and that the constructed SAS dataset is what you want it to be. After you have decided that the program is working OK so far, these program-checking `proc print' statements can be safely deleted. Of course, DON'T DELETE `proc print' statements that are needed for your answers in Part (I).

Exams, Final, and Grades:
        There will be three in-Semester evening examinations on Tuesdays February 5, March 4, and April 8 probably at 6:30-8:30 PM. The final will be on Friday May 2 from 10:30 AM to 12:30 PM. Approximately half of the Final will cover the material since the third exam. The other half will cover the same material covered in the first three exams.
        Each exam will have 20 problems, of which around 15 will be from the recommended homework (with slight changes) and the other 5 will be similar in nature. Thus you should have no trouble doing well on the exams if you have been doing the recommended homework regularly. You may bring one 4x6 inch notecard with notes to each examination. You should definitely remember to bring one of the TI-83-series statistical calculators mentioned above.
        Examination room and seat assignments will be posted on the Mathematics Department Web site at
       
http://www.math.wustl.edu/seatlookup
on the day of the examination.
        Each of the four exams will count 20% towards the final grade. The required Computer Homework will count the remaining 20%. In addition, to help late bloomers, a separate final score will be counted for everyone with the first three exams counted 16% each, the final counted 32%, and the computer HW still the remaining 20%. The final score that counts will be the maximum of these two scores. The final grade will be based on a ranking by the final score. If you elect ``Credit/No Credit'', Cr means D or better.

Collaboration:
        Collaboration on homework is allowed and can be helpful (and fun). However, you must do all written work yourself, and write and run all computer programs yourself.


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Last modified April 5, 2008