Title:
Measuring Marginal Rates of Policy Substitution with Heterogeneity: Uses of Force and Sanctions by U. S. Presidents (The methods)
Abstract:
I analyze research design and estimation techniques for policy substitutability with explicit attention to
the role of strategy. Foreign policy substitutability requires an examination of the factors that link choices to the
broader themes that particular actions represent. This analysis leads to a simultaneous equations framework with a specific view toward testing
hypotheses of substitution, complementarity, and no relation among distinct policy
choices. I analyze issues concerning the estimation of models in this class analytically and in a series of Monte
Carlo analyses of the appropriateness of various techniques. I then extend the theoretical and empirical models to
analyze agent-specific substitution patterns in a study of uses of force and economic sanctions by the United States in the post-World War II
period.