Math 2200 Spring, 2014

Elementary Probability and Statistics

Lectures: Section 1, MWF 11:10-12 Brown 118; Section 2, MWF 1:10-2 Brown 118

Final Exam: Thursday, May 1, 3:30-5:30pm Seating

Final Exam Office Hour: Tuesday April 29   2:00pm-4:00pm,   Wednesday April 30   2:00pm-4:00pm

1. You will be allowed a double-sided letter-sized 8.5x11 notecard.

2. The final exam will have an emphasis on materials after Test 3. Expect about 2/3 of the problems on materials after Test 3.

3. The format is similar to Test 3.

Letter Grades have now been posted.

These are based on the point grade, which equals the maximum of

(T1+T2+T3+F)/4 and (T1+T2+T3+2xF)/5

Exempted tests/exam are calculated using linear regression on the z-scores of the remaining tests/exam.

The HARD cutoffs are as follows:

95-100 A+

90-94.9 A

85-89.9 A-

80-84.9 B+

75-79.9 B

68-74.9 B-

63-67.9 C+

58-62.9 C

53-57.9 C-

48-52.9 D+

Instructor: Songhao Li        Office: 207A Cupples I

Phone: 314-935-4208        email: sli@math.wustl.edu

Office Hour: Mondays 2:30-4, Thursdays 11-12

Grader: Yiqian Fang and Junior Genival Fernandes da Silva

Course Webpage: http://www.math.wustl.edu/~sli/math2200_spring2014/course.html

Textbook: Stats: Data and Models 3ed by De Veaux, Velleman and Bock

This is an introductory course in statistics and the underlying probability theory supporting it.

The goal is to provide a basic sense of statistical modeling and inference as well as the ability to perform basic statistical analysis of real-world data.

We will cover the entire textbook.

Course Evaluation:

Test 1 - 7pm-9pm Tuesday February 4

Test 2 - 7pm-9pm Tuesday March 4

Test 3 - 7pm-9pm Tuesday April 8

Final - (pending confirmation) 3:30pm-5:30pm Thursday May 1

You will need the a graphing calculator with statistial functions, such as TI-83 or TI-84.

Each test and the final are graded out of 100. The course point grade is the higher number between

T1 x 0.25 + T2 x 0.25 + T3 x 0.25 + F x 0.25

and

T1 x 0.20 + T2 x 0.20 + T3 x 0.20 + F x 0.4

At the end of the semester, this point grade is converted to a letter grade as follows,

A: 90-100, B: 80-89, C: 70-79, D: 60-69,

with the plus and minus at the tops and bottoms of these ranges.

If you are registered pass/fail, you must achieve at least 70 to pass.

Midterm Update:

Note I have "scaled up" the midterm grades. I may do further changes as appropriate to the final grade.

A: 90-100, B: 75-89, C: 60-74, D: 50-59

In Test 3 and the final, you will be allowed a 4x6 notecard.

Recommended Exercises:

There will be six recommended exercises for each class. (See below)

Two are odd numbered, for which you can find the solution at the end of the book.

I will attempt to do two exercises in the class.

Voluntary Submission:

For those of you who wish, a grader will provide you with feedback on the two remaining exercises.

By noon of next Monday, you may drop your solutions of the week's recommended exercises in the box outside my office 207A Cupples I.

Please indicate your section on the first page, but you do not necessarily have to write your name.

The grader will score your solutions, and I will bring the original copies in class.

To receive feedback faster, you may print your WUSTL email address and write on the front side of each piece of paper only. The grader will email you the scanned copies.

Week 1

Jan 13:  Data and the W's            Ch 2.  8, 10, 12, 17,19,24

Jan 15:  Categorical Data             Ch 3.  12, 18, 19, 32, 34, 37

Jan 17:  Quantitative Data          Ch 4. 16, 17, 26, 28, 29, 30

Week 2

Jan 20:  MLK Day  No Class

Jan 22:  Understanding and Comparing Distributions             Ch 5.  7, 10, 12, 14, 20, 35

Jan 24:  Standard Deviation and Normal Model                       Ch 6.  14, 16, 35, 44, 47, 48

Week 3

Jan 27:  Part I Review Slides                                                         Part I Rev.  21, 24, 28, 34, 37, 38

Jan 29:  Scatterplots, Association, and Correlation                Ch 7.  16, 17, 32, 36, 40, 41

Jan 31:  Linear Regression                                                               Ch 8.  44, 45, 47, 48, 56, 64

Week 4

Feb 3:  Regression Wisdom                                                             Ch 9.  9, 14, 30, 32, 33, 34

Feb 4:  Test 1

To claim the exams: Room 12 (basement) of Cupples I, 12-4pm Friday Feb 7

Feb 5:  Re-expressing Data: Get It Straight!                               Ch 10.  11, 12, 15, 18, 20, 22, 30

Feb 7:  Part II Review Slides                                                           Part II Rev.  1, 8, 10, 18, 19, 28, 34

Week 5

Feb 10:  Understanding Randomness                                   Ch 11.  11, 12, 34, 35, 36, 40

Feb 12:  Sample Surveys                                                              Ch 12.  2, 3, 6, 18, 34, 35

Feb 14:  Experiments and observational studies               Ch 13.  3, 4, 7, 24, 32, 42

Week 6

Feb 17:  Experiments and observational studies (continued)

Feb 19:  Gathering Data                                                     Part III Review.  3, 6, 9,12, 18, 30

Feb 21:  From Randomness to Probability                                    Ch 14.  12, 13, 16, 18, 31, 42

Week 7

Feb 24:  Probability Rules                                                         Ch 15.  4, 17, 38, 40, 42, 45

Feb 26:  Random Variables                                                      Ch 16.  18, 19, 20, 23, 44, 46

Feb 21:  Probability Models                                                     Ch 17.  30, 34, 41, 43, 50, 52

Week 8

Mar 3:  Randomness and Probability  Slides                      Part IV Review.  27, 28, 37, 40, 42, 44

Mar 4:  Test 2   Old Exams

To claim the exams: Room 12 (basement) of Cupples I, 12-4pm Friday Mar 7

Mar 5:  Randomness and Probability (continued)

Mar 7:  Sampling Distribution Models                                 Ch 18.  4, 14, 23, 38, 48, 53

Week 9

Spring break, have fun!

Week 10

Mar 17:  Confidence Intervals for Proportions                     Ch 19.  3, 11, 12, 18, 24, 34

Mar 19:  Testing Hypothesis about Proportions                   Ch 20.  10, 11, 18, 22, 24, 29

Mar 21:  More about Tests and Intervals                              Ch 21.  3, 15, 16, 24, 32, 34

Week 11

Mar 24:  Comparing two Proportions                                                      Ch 22.  6, 11, 12, 14, 16, 31

Mar 26:  From the Data at Hand to the World at Large Slides         Part V Review.  6, 10, 18, 20, 31, 39

Mar 28:  Inferences about Means                                                             Ch 23.  7, 8, 12, 30, 34, 39

Week 12

Mar 31:  Comparing Means                                                           Ch 24.  3, 6, 8, 11, 30, 36

Apr 2:  Paired Samples and Blocks                                                Ch 25.  6, 10, 15, 22, 28, 32

Apr 4:  Comparing Counts                                                                Ch 26.  9, 11, 16, 24, 28, 40

Week 13

Apr 7:  Learning about the World Slides                                             Part VI Review.  1, 2, 25, 34, 40, 42

Apr 8:  Test 3   Old Exams   Test 3 (typo corrected)     Solution 3

To claim the exams: Room 12 (basement) of Cupples I, 12-4pm Friday April 10

Apr 9:  Inferences for Regression                                                             Ch 27.  1, 4, 6, 14, 16, 19

Apr 11: Inferences for Regression   continued...                                Ch 27.  21, 22, 24, 32, 43, 44

Week 14

Apr 14:  Analysis of Variance                                              Ch 28.  12, 13, 15, 18, 20, 22

Apr 16:  Multifactor Analysis of Variance                        Ch 29.  6, 8, 10, 12, 19, 21

Apr 18:  Mutiple Regression                                                 Ch 30.  1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 9

Week 15

Apr 21:  Mutiple Regression     continued...                            Ch 30.  10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17

Apr 23:  Multiple Regression Wisdom Slides                            Ch 31.  1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 12

Apr 25:  Inference When Variables Are Related Slides         Rev VII Review.  26, 32, 40, 42, 43, 44

Final Exam See top of the page