Math 2200 Spring, 2014
Elementary Probability and Statistics
Lectures: Section 1, MWF 11:10-12 Brown 118; Section 2, MWF 1:10-2 Brown 118
Final Exam: Thursday, May 1, 3:30-5:30pm Seating
Final Exam Office Hour: Tuesday April 29 2:00pm-4:00pm, Wednesday April 30 2:00pm-4:00pm
Final Exam Additional Information:
1. You will be allowed a double-sided letter-sized 8.5x11 notecard.
2. The final exam will have an emphasis on materials after Test 3. Expect about 2/3 of the problems on materials after Test 3.
3. The format is similar to Test 3.
Final Exam Final Solution
Letter Grades have now been posted.
These are based on the point grade, which equals the maximum of
(T1+T2+T3+F)/4 and (T1+T2+T3+2xF)/5
Exempted tests/exam are calculated using linear regression on the z-scores of the remaining tests/exam.
The HARD cutoffs are as follows:
95-100 A+
90-94.9 A
85-89.9 A-
80-84.9 B+
75-79.9 B
68-74.9 B-
63-67.9 C+
58-62.9 C
53-57.9 C-
48-52.9 D+
Instructor: Songhao Li Office: 207A Cupples I
Phone: 314-935-4208 email: sli@math.wustl.edu
Office Hour: Mondays 2:30-4, Thursdays 11-12
Grader: Yiqian Fang and Junior Genival Fernandes da Silva
Course Webpage: http://www.math.wustl.edu/~sli/math2200_spring2014/course.html
Textbook: Stats: Data and Models 3ed by De Veaux, Velleman and Bock
This is an introductory course in statistics and the underlying probability theory supporting it.
The
goal is to provide a basic sense of statistical modeling and inference
as well as the ability to perform basic statistical analysis of
real-world data.
We will cover the entire textbook.
Course Evaluation:
Test 1 - 7pm-9pm Tuesday February 4
Test 2 - 7pm-9pm Tuesday March 4
Test 3 - 7pm-9pm Tuesday April 8
Final - (pending confirmation) 3:30pm-5:30pm Thursday May 1
You will need the a graphing calculator with statistial functions, such as TI-83 or TI-84.
Each test and the final are graded out of 100. The course point grade is the higher number between
T1 x 0.25 + T2 x 0.25 + T3 x 0.25 + F x 0.25
and
T1 x 0.20 + T2 x 0.20 + T3 x 0.20 + F x 0.4
At the end of the semester, this point grade is converted to a letter grade as follows,
A: 90-100, B: 80-89, C: 70-79, D: 60-69,
with the plus and minus at the tops and bottoms of these ranges.
If you are registered pass/fail, you must achieve at least 70 to pass.
Midterm Update:
Note I have "scaled up" the midterm grades. I may do further changes as appropriate to the final grade.
A: 90-100, B: 75-89, C: 60-74, D: 50-59
In Test 3 and the final, you will be allowed a 4x6 notecard.
Recommended Exercises:
There are no graded homework.
There will be six recommended exercises for each class. (See below)
Two are odd numbered, for which you can find the solution at the end of the book.
I will attempt to do two exercises in the class.
Voluntary Submission:
For those of you who wish, a grader will provide you with feedback on the two remaining exercises.
By
noon of next Monday, you may drop your solutions of the week's
recommended exercises in the box outside my office 207A Cupples I.
Please indicate your section on the first page, but you do not necessarily have to write your name.
The grader will score your solutions, and I will bring the original copies in class.
To
receive feedback faster, you may print your WUSTL email address and
write on the front side of each piece of paper only. The grader will email you
the scanned copies.
Week 1
Jan 13: Data and the W's Ch 2. 8, 10, 12, 17,19,24
Jan 15: Categorical Data Ch 3. 12, 18, 19, 32, 34, 37
Jan 17: Quantitative Data Ch 4. 16, 17, 26, 28, 29, 30
Week 2
Jan 20: MLK Day No Class
Jan
22: Understanding and Comparing Distributions
Ch 5. 7, 10,
12, 14, 20, 35
Jan
24: Standard Deviation and Normal Model
Ch 6. 14, 16, 35, 44, 47, 48
Week 3
Jan
27: Part I Review Slides
Part I
Rev. 21, 24, 28, 34, 37, 38
Jan
29: Scatterplots, Association, and Correlation
Ch 7. 16, 17, 32, 36, 40, 41
Jan
31: Linear Regression
Ch 8. 44, 45, 47, 48, 56, 64
Week 4
Feb 3: Regression Wisdom
Ch 9. 9, 14, 30, 32, 33, 34
Feb 4: Test 1 Seating
Test 1 Solution 1
To claim the
exams: Room 12 (basement) of Cupples I, 12-4pm Friday Feb 7
Feb 5: Re-expressing Data: Get It Straight!
Ch 10. 11, 12, 15, 18, 20, 22, 30
Feb
7: Part II Review Slides
Part II
Rev. 1, 8, 10, 18, 19, 28, 34
Week 5
Feb 10: Understanding Randomness
Ch 11. 11, 12, 34, 35, 36, 40
Feb
12: Sample Surveys
Ch 12. 2, 3, 6, 18, 34, 35
Feb 14: Experiments and observational studies
Ch 13. 3, 4, 7, 24, 32, 42
Week 6
Feb 17: Experiments and observational studies (continued)
Feb
19: Gathering Data Slides
Part III Review. 3, 6, 9,12, 18, 30
Feb
21: From
Randomness to Probability
Ch 14. 12, 13, 16, 18, 31, 42
Week 7
Feb 24: Probability
Rules
Ch 15. 4, 17, 38, 40, 42, 45
Feb 26: Random Variables
Ch 16. 18, 19, 20, 23, 44, 46
Feb
21: Probability Models
Ch 17. 30, 34, 41, 43, 50, 52
Week 8
Mar 3: Randomness
and Probability Slides
Part IV Review. 27, 28, 37, 40, 42, 44
Mar 4: Test 2 Seating Old Exams
Test 2 Solution 2
To claim the
exams: Room 12 (basement) of Cupples I, 12-4pm Friday Mar 7
Mar 5: Randomness
and Probability (continued)
Mar 7: Sampling Distribution Models
Ch 18. 4, 14, 23, 38, 48, 53
Week 9
Spring break, have fun!
Week 10
Mar 17: Confidence Intervals for Proportions
Ch 19. 3, 11, 12, 18, 24, 34
Mar 19: Testing Hypothesis about Proportions
Ch 20. 10, 11, 18, 22, 24, 29
Mar 21: More about Tests and Intervals
Ch 21. 3, 15, 16, 24, 32, 34
Week 11
Mar 24: Comparing two Proportions
Ch 22. 6, 11, 12, 14, 16, 31
Mar 26: From the Data at Hand to the World at Large Slides Part V Review. 6, 10, 18, 20, 31, 39
Mar 28: Inferences
about Means
Ch 23. 7, 8, 12, 30, 34, 39
Week 12
Mar 31: Comparing Means
Ch 24. 3, 6, 8, 11,
30, 36
Apr 2: Paired
Samples and Blocks
Ch 25. 6, 10, 15, 22, 28, 32
Apr 4: Comparing Counts
Ch 26. 9, 11, 16, 24, 28, 40
Week 13
Apr 7: Learning about the World
Slides
Part VI Review. 1, 2, 25, 34, 40, 42
Apr 8: Test 3 Seating Old Exams Test 3 (typo corrected) Solution 3
To claim the
exams: Room 12 (basement) of Cupples I, 12-4pm Friday April 10
Apr 9: Inferences
for Regression
Ch 27. 1, 4, 6, 14, 16, 19
Apr
11: Inferences for Regression
continued...
Ch 27. 21, 22, 24, 32, 43, 44
Week 14
Apr 14: Analysis of Variance
Ch 28. 12, 13, 15, 18, 20, 22
Apr 16:
Multifactor Analysis of
Variance
Ch 29. 6, 8, 10, 12, 19, 21
Apr
18: Mutiple
Regression
Ch 30. 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 9
Week 15
Apr 21: Mutiple Regression continued...
Ch 30. 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17
Apr 23:
Multiple Regression Wisdom Slides
Ch 31. 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 12
Apr 25: Inference When Variables Are Related Slides
Rev VII Review. 26, 32, 40, 42, 43, 44
Final Exam See top of the page